This report is a summary of third-party economic research and perspectives to foster communication with business and economic development stakeholders.
Key Economic Insights
- Global: Direct economic harm caused by the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in highly vaccinated countries appears so far to be relatively modest and short-lived.
- U.S.: CPI registered a 7.5% annual gain in January, while PPI rose 9.7% on year-on-year basis. Minutes show Federal Reserve ready to raise rates, shrink balance sheet soon.
- Ohio: Ohio new business creation reached a record 197,010 in 2021. Positive economic impact from Bengals Super Bowl run. NBA All-Star 2022 in Cleveland to reach fans in 215 countries and territories in a record 60 languages.
Global Insights
The U.K. economy grew 7.5% in 2021, the fastest rate of growth since the 1940’s. The Bank of England now expects inflation to peak at 7.2% in April and has imposed back-to-back interest rate hikes for the first time since 2004. The Bank also slashed its GDP growth forecasts last week, cautioning that the impact of inflation means the economy is likely to grow 3.75% in 2022 instead of the 5% it previously projected. German industrial production slowed in December following supply chain disruptions and a drop in construction spending at the end of 2021. Full-year production in 2021 ended 3.0% higher than in 2020, but remained 5.5% lower than pre-pandemic (2019). Nearly 62% of the global population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. Insights
The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of recovery as unemployment claims fell for a third consecutive week. U.S. small business confidence fell to an 11-month low in January amid persistent worker shortages and higher prices for materials according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a preliminary reading of 61.7 in February, reaching its worst level in a decade and declining 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from February 2021. Nearly 76% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and over 64% is fully vaccinated.
U.S. inflation continued to accelerate in January, with the CPI registering a 7.5% annual gain, the fastest annual rise since 1982. Used-car prices continued to be the main driver of inflation, rising 40.5% in January year-over-year. Core CPI rose by 6.0% in January over last year, also marking the biggest jump since 1982. Consumers ended 2021 with record levels of debt, leading into a year in which interest rates are expected to rise substantially. Total U.S. consumer debt at the end of 2021 came to $15.6T. The quarterly rise in Q4 was the largest since 2007, and the annual gain in 2021 was the largest on record dating back to 2003.
Ohio Employment & Economic Insights
Ohio set an annual record for new business creation in 2021, breaking 2020’s previous record. The total new business filings in 2021 was 197,010, a 15% increase over 2020’s record of 171,073. Weekly jobless claims declined for the fourth straight week in Ohio. Ohioans posted 9,719 initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 5, down from 10,313 from the prior week. Over 7.2M Ohioans have started the COVID-19 vaccination process.
A new Ohio Battery Supply Chain Opportunities report highlights Ohio’s unique position to become an industry leader and hub for advanced technologies that can reduce emissions and innovate the automotive industry. Ohio has current initiatives aimed at building an auto supply chain that capitalizes on lithium-ion battery manufacturing, such as the GM/LG Energy (Ultium Cells) Lordstown investment, and other facets of EV development.
Sidney Ohio Industrial Park has been deemed among Ohio’s top sites for economic development after receiving authentication from JobsOhio through its SiteOhio program. The authenticated status ensures a new company the site is free of any detriments that may slow or stop development.
While local businesses report a positive economic impact from Bengals Super Bowl run, Cleveland is looking ahead to NBA All-Star 2022, which will reach fans in 215 countries and territories in a record 60 languages.
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Resources
- Ohio Department of Health’s COVID-19 Website: www.coronavirus.ohio.gov
- JobsOhio’s resource portal and information about Open, Secure Supply Chains in Ohio.