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This report is a summary of third-party economic research and perspectives to foster communication with business and economic development stakeholders.
Key Economic Insights
- Global: Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% global GDP growth in 2022.
- U.S.: Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will accelerate the wind-down of its bond buying program as inflation readings are at multi-decade highs.
- Ohio: The Buckeye State is set to host numerous major events in early 2022, including the USA-El Salvador World Cup Qualifier in Columbus in January, the NBA All-Star Game in Cleveland in February, and the NCAA “First Four” in Dayton in March.
Global Insights
Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% global GDP growth in 2022. “Things are normalizing,” says Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter, “but they are not normal.” Eurozone GDP rose 2.2% in Q3, matching the growth in the Q2. Japan’s GDP retracted -3.6% in Q3, down from initial estimates of -3%. German exports rose 4.1% in October, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 12.9% in November year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. China’s central bank will reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks, releasing nearly $188.3B into the financial system in a move it hopes will stimulate the slowing economy. Nearly 56.4% of the eligible global population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. Insights
U.S. job openings rose to 11M in October, up from 10.4M in September. Quits fell to 4.2M during the month, down from a record 4.4M in September. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 4 fell to 184,000, down from an upwardly revised 227,000 during the prior week and the lowest level in more than five decades. Continuing claims were 1.992M, up from 1.954M during the prior week.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% from a year ago in November, the fastest rate since June 1982. Core CPI rose 0.5% for the month and 4.9% from a year earlier, the sharpest pickup since mid-1991. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 9.6% for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 65 in Q4 2021, down moderately from 67 in Q3. The UMICH Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.5% to a preliminary reading of 70.4 in December.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $67.1B in October, the lowest level in six months and after hitting a record high in September. U.S. productivity in Q3 was revised down to -5.2% from previous estimates of -5.0%, marking the steepest decline in the quarterly rate since 1960. Unit labor costs rose at an annual rate of 9.6%, and hourly compensation increased 3%. Over 72% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and about 60.5% is fully vaccinated.
Ohio Employment & Economic Insights
JobsOhio announced official results of its first decade of operations. In the period from its founding in 2011 through 2020, JobsOhio executed more than 2,800 economic development project deals that created more than 210,000 new jobs, retained more than 590,000 Ohio jobs, secured more than $45B in payrolls, and helped companies invest $64B on new capital assets in the state. These direct investments multiply as they are magnified through Ohio’s broader economy and JobsOhio is platinum-level certified by Guidestar, for transparency.
The Ohio Tax Credit Authority (TCA) approved assistance for 10 projects across the state, which are set to create 946 new jobs and retain 2,485 jobs statewide. Collectively, the projects are expected to result in more than $50M in new payroll and spur more than $296M in investments. TCA meets monthly.
A new analysis of regional affordability data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ranks Youngstown (#2), Toledo (#3), Dayton (#4), Cleveland (#18), Akron (#19), Cincinnati (#23), and Columbus (#27) in overall affordability among the nation’s 100 largest metros.
The Ohio Department of Development and the Ohio Department of Agriculture launched a grant program to provide up to $250,000 to Ohio livestock and poultry producers to implement processing efficiencies, expand, or construct facilities at existing sites, assist in training and certification and improve harvest services. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Rural Energy for America Program (REAP) awarded 23 grants totaling $898,541 to farmers and small businesses across Ohio to support renewable energy projects.
The Institute for Sustainable Energy and the Environment at Ohio University’s Russ College of Engineering was awarded $2M from the U.S. Department of Energy to develop advanced filaments for additive manufacturing and graphite for energy storage applications from mining wastes. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources is investing more than $7M in three former mine locations in Coshocton, Perry and Athens counties to revitalize and make safer through the Abandoned Mine Land Economic Revitalization Program.
Over 6.84M Ohioans have started the COVID-19 vaccination process, marking approximately 62% of the population currently eligible. Ohioans filed 9,302 initial traditional unemployment claims for the week ended December 4. Continued traditional unemployment claims were 40,797.
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Resources
- Ohio Department of Health’s COVID-19 Website: coronavirus.ohio.gov
- JobsOhio’s resource portal and information about Open, Secure Supply Chains in Ohio.